Quick Market Analysis June 2024
June 17, 2024 – With recent economic reports showing some promising signs that inflation could be cooling in a more sustainable fashion for the rest of the year, mortgage rates may moderate in coming months as the daily fluctuations in yields continue. Meanwhile, even though the Federal Reserve decided to hold rates steady in their latest meeting, the central bank is still expected to cut rates later this year but at a more moderate pace than previously anticipated. As such, home sales are projected to improve in the second half of the year, but the growth rate will be slower than what was projected earlier this year. Federal Reserve takes its time and holds rates steady: The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate target range steady at 5.25% to 5.50% after its June meeting, as the central bank continued to wait for more evidence to suggest that inflation is moving sustainably down. While most participants at the meeting continued to project some reduction in the fed funds rate later this year, the outlook for rate cuts released in the latest Fed’s meeting was revised to just one in 2024. No participants at the meeting expected the fed funds rate to be raised before the end of the year and they projected a cut of 100 basis points in 2025. Fed chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the restrictive monetary policy’s stance that the central bank takes is slowing inflation, but the Federal Reserve does not have the confidence to cut rates yet. Inflation eases more than expected in May: Inflation came in softer than expected in May as consumer price increases cooled during the month, with the May headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat month-over-month and registering an increase of 3.3% year-over-year. Both measures came in lower than expected and the monthly increase was the lowest reading since July 2022. Falling energy prices and the modest increase in food prices both contributed to the slower-than-expected growth rate in the headline CPI. The Core CPI – inflation excluding food and energy – also surprised on the downside with prices in May climbing 0.2% month-over-month, the lowest level since June 2023. The latest inflation data is encouraging and suggests that the underlying price trend is indeed slowing. The Fed, however, will need to see at least two or three more reports like this one to feel confident enough to start cutting rates. Homebuyer sentiment dips as rates rise: Home Purchase Sentiment released by Fannie Mae declined in May as mortgage rates surged to the highest levels since December at the start of the month. Those who said that it is a good time to buy dropped six percentage points to 14% last month, reaching a survey low last seen in November 2023. The surge in rates throughout the second half of May is likely a contributing factor to the pessimism in the sentiment index. Twenty-five percent of the survey respondents believed that rates will go down over the next 12 months, a slight dip from 26% recorded in April, but a sizable drop from 36% in January. The share of consumers who said it would be easy to get a home mortgage today also declined sharply by eight percentage points to 41% last month. Despite the loss in optimism in the latest survey results, the sentiment should improve in coming months as mortgage rates began to moderate in the past week as recent economic reports offer hope that inflation could be easing in a more sustainable fashion in coming months. Homeowner equity rises nearly double digits from a year ago: Homeowner equity jumped again on an annual basis in Q1 2024 as home prices continued to rise in the past 12 months, according to the latest CoreLogic Homeowner Equity Insights report. Homeowners with mortgages in the U.S. have seen an aggregated increase of $1.5 trillion in equity since Q1 2023, a jump of 9.6% year-over-year. Mortgaged residential properties with negative equity declined 2.1% from Q4 2023 and 16.1% from Q1 2023. Roughly 1.8%, or one million, of all mortgaged properties were underwater, which was significantly below the peak of 26% observed in Q4 2009. On average, U.S. homeowners with mortgages gained $28,000 in equity last quarter compared to a year ago. California had the highest equity gain of all states in Q1 2024, with an average homeowner equity increase of $64,000 year-over-year in the latest quarter. The Golden State had a share of homes with negative equity at 0.7% in Q1 2024 and was the state with the smallest share among all states reported by CoreLogic. Consumers more optimistic about the inflation outlook and their financial situation: Consumers expectations on inflation a year from now dipped in May, remained unchanged at the medium-term horizon, and increased at the longer-term horizon, according to the latest New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations. At the one-year horizon, the median inflation expectation registered at 3.2% last month, down slightly from April’s 3.3%, but dropped sharply below the 4.1% recorded in May 2023. Consumers were also more optimistic, in general, about their financial well-being. Their perceived probability of losing their job in the next 12 months, for example, decreased 2.7 percentage points to 12.4% in the latest reading. In addition, they expected their household income to grow in 12 months by 3.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from April.
Read MoreMortgage Rates Decrease for the First Time Since March
News Facts The 30-year FRM averaged 7.09 percent as of May 9, 2024, down from last week when it averaged 7.22 percent. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.35 percent. The 15-year FRM averaged 6.38 percent, down from last week when it averaged 6.47 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.75 percent. See Full Article from Yahoo Finance below: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-decrease-first-time-160000662.html?guccounter=1
Read MoreHome Values Increase in Southern California
I recently came across an article that I believe would be of great interest to anyone with passion for real estate and home values. The article titled "Home Values Increase in Southern California" is featured on Sunset magazine's website, and you can find it at the following link: https://www.sunset.com/home-garden/home-values-increase-in-southern-california.As a fellow real estate enthusiast, I thought you would appreciate the insights and analysis presented in this article. It discusses the upward trend in home values in Southern California, shedding light on the factors contributing to this growth. The author delves into the region's strong economy, attractive lifestyle, and the high demand for properties, among other key factors.Being part of eXp Realty, a reputable real estate agency, I am constantly staying informed about market trends and developments. This article particularly caught my attention as it reaffirms the positive outlook for the real estate market in Southern California. It highlights the potential opportunities for both buyers and sellers, making it a must-read for anyone interested in the local housing market.I believe that staying informed about market trends is essential for anyone involved in real estate, whether as an agent, investor, or homeowner. This article can provide valuable insights that can help inform your strategies and decision-making processes.Should you have any questions or if there is anything specific you would like to discuss regarding the real estate market in Southern California, please feel free to reach out to me. I am here to assist you and provide any additional information or guidance you may need.Thank you for taking the time to go through this email and considering the article I recommended. I hope you find it as insightful and valuable as I did. Stay tuned for more updates on the real estate market and industry news, as I am always happy to share my knowledge and expertise.
Read MoreCurrent Real Estate Market in San Diego
The real estate market in San Diego has been experiencing significant changes recently. It is crucial for both buyers and sellers to stay informed about the current state of the market. In this blog post, we will provide a market update and discuss important considerations for both buyers and sellers. Market Update: The San Diego real estate market has remained surprisingly robust despite the challenges posed by the pandemic. Historically low interest rates have incentivized buyers, creating high demand and driving up prices. According to recent data, the median home price in San Diego has increased by 8.8% compared to the previous year. Additionally, inventory levels are relatively low, resulting in a competitive market for buyers. However, experts suggest that the market may cool down slightly in the coming months as the economy stabilizes. Buyers: If you are considering buying a property in San Diego, it is crucial to be prepared and act quickly. With limited inventory, competition among buyers is fierce. To increase your chances of success, it is recommended to get pre-approved for a mortgage and work with an experienced real estate agent who can help you navigate the market. Additionally, being flexible with your search criteria and considering properties that may need some renovation or updating could open up more options for you. Sellers: For sellers, now may be an opportune time to list your property. The high demand and limited inventory have created a seller's market, which can translate to quicker sales and potentially higher selling prices. However, it is essential to price your property competitively and ensure it is in its best condition to attract potential buyers. Working with a knowledgeable real estate agent can help you determine the right listing price and market your property effectively. In conclusion, the current real estate market in San Diego is characterized by high demand and limited inventory. Buyers should be prepared to act quickly and have their finances in order, while sellers can take advantage of the seller's market by pricing their properties competitively. As always, it is advisable to consult with a real estate professional for personalized guidance based on your specific circumstances.
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